Advantage of Vital Sign Monitoring Using a Wireless Wearable Device for Predicting Septic Shock in Febrile Patients in the Emergency Department: A Machine Learning-Based Analysis

Abstract

Intermittent manual measurement of vital signs may not rapidly predict sepsis development in febrile patients admitted to the emergency department (ED). We aimed to evaluate the predictive performance of a wireless monitoring device that continuously measures heart rate (HR) and respiratory rate (RR) and a machine learning analysis in febrile but stable patients in the ED. We analysed 468 patients (age, ≥18 years; training set, n = 277; validation set, n = 93; test set, n = 98) having fever (temperature >38 °C) and admitted to the isolation care unit of the ED. The AUROC of the fragmented model with device data was 0.858 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.809–0.908), and that with manual data was 0.841 (95% CI, 0.789–0.893). The AUROC of the accumulated model with device data was 0.861 (95% CI, 0.811–0.910), and that with manual data was 0.853 (95% CI, 0.803–0.903). Fragmented and accumulated models with device data detected clinical deterioration in febrile patients at risk of septic shock 9 h and 5 h 30 min earlier, respectively, than those with manual data. Continuous vital sign monitoring using a wearable device could accurately predict clinical deterioration and reduce the time to recognise potential clinical deterioration in stable ED patients with fever.